Richard Arlin Walker
Special to ICT
Voters were pessimistic about the economy in 2024 and Donald Trump rode that wave of pessimism back to the White House, promising bigger paychecks, more jobs and no inflation.
Voters aren’t any less pessimistic nearly a year into Trump’s second presidency. And that pessimism — as well as chaos fatigue — could derail his agenda in the November 2026 midterm elections when all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 U.S. Senate seats will be on the ballot. Trump’s agenda depends on the support of a Republican majority of seven in the House and a Republican majority of six in the Senate.
Indigenous voters could have a hand in shaping the new Congress next year, with several important races in states with significant Native populations. Among the well-known Native candidates: former U.S. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland, running for governor of New Mexico; Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, running for U.S. Senate; and U.S. Rep. Sharice Davids of Kansas, who is reported to be weighing a run for the Senate if not re-election to her congressional seat.
The midterm elections begin with primaries starting in early 2026 and conclude with the general election on Nov. 3, 2026.
Trump’s mandate is a slim one. Kamala Harris would be in the White House if a combined 226,000 voters in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania had had more confidence in the economy in 2024. Trump’s approval rating on Nov. 30 was below 40 percent in those states, according to a Newsweek polling map.
“I think the election results from this year are definitely showing where the country is moving,” said Shasti Conrad, chairwoman of the Washington state Democratic Party and a vice chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, referring to the election this fall of Democrats as governors in New Jersey and Virginia and as mayors in New York and Miami.
In Tennessee, Democratic state Rep. Aftyn Behn lost a U.S. House bid to Republican Matt Van Epps by a 9-point margin, in a district that voted 60 percent for Trump in 2024 and has been represented by a Republican since 1983. William Lyons, professor emeritus of political science at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, told Newsweek before the election that a single-digit finish by Behn “would represent a positive sign for Democrats next year.”
“The Republicans have way overreached in many areas and they’ve not actually fixed any of the problems that they claimed that they would, like making it easier to buy groceries and lower gas prices and make life more affordable,” Conrad said. “I think that people are frustrated and they’re tired of the chaos and there are a lot of Trump voters that are having buyer’s remorse.”
Republican political strategist Mike Stopp, Cherokee/Muscogee, said what the economy looks like early fall next year will determine whether Republicans gain or lose seats in Congress in the November elections.
“There are some social issues and immigration issues that will have a role, but really, at the end of the day, every election is about the economy,” Stopp told ICT.
“Every election is about those middle-of-the road voters – not the hardcore right or the hardcore left – and how their pocketbook is affected,” Stopp said. “That’s what’s going to make a difference. And if some of the things that President Trump is trying to put into place go the way he expects them to, then I would expect to see a better turnout for Republicans in November.”
Here are some congressional and state races ICT will be watching in 2026.
Alaska
Former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola, Yup’ik, a Democrat, is considering a candidacy for governor or U.S. Senate in her home state of Alaska. Polls show her about even with Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, who is running for reelection to the Senate. Alaska’s non-partisan, ranked-choice primary is scheduled for Aug. 18, 2026.
Alaska, population 740,133, had a Native population of 124,273 in the 2020 U.S. Census.
Peltola served in the Alaska House of Representatives from 1999 to 2009, the Bethel City Council from 2011-2013, and then as a tribal court judge and executive director of the Kuskokwim River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission.
She won a special election in 2022 to succeed Republican U.S. Rep. Don Young, who died in office, and later that year won election to a full term. She served on the House Committee on Natural Resources and the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure. Her moderate views earned her endorsements from Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska and the National Rifle Association.
She was defeated in her 2024 re-election bid by Republican Nick Begich, and left office in January.
Arizona
Former Navajo Nation Chairman Jonathan Nez and former state Rep. Eric Descheenie, also Navajo, are seeking the Democratic nomination for the U.S. House from Arizona’s 2nd Congressional District. The Arizona primary is scheduled for Aug. 4, 2026; the winner will face Republican Eli Crane, who is seeking a second term.
Arizona, population 7.1 million, had a Native population of 335,909 in the 2020 Census.
Nez supports mail-in voting, a big issue among rural voters; investing in security technology and hiring more border agents and caseworkers along the southern border. He also supports establishing a pathway to citizenship “for those who work hard and play by the rules,” investments in opioid addiction prevention and treatment, protecting water and the climate, and “putting the needs of rural Arizona ahead of partisan politics to deliver meaningful change.”
Descheenie said on his website that he will work for a future “that puts people and decency first … One that prioritizes basic human rights such as universal healthcare, a livable wage, affordable housing, fully funded public education and adequate and clean drinking water.”
Crane lists his priorities as securing the border, protecting gun ownership rights, ensuring the integrity of elections, lowering taxes, and increasing domestic energy production.
Georgia
A special election will take place on March 17, 2026, in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District to choose a successor to U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, a Republican and former Trump ally who announced she would resign effective Jan. 5, 2026. The primary election for a full two-year term will take place May 19, followed by the general election six months later.
Georgia, population 10.7 million, had a Native population of 57,917 in the 2020 Census.
Among the Democratic Party candidates is retired U.S. Army Brigadier General Shawn Harris. He lost to Greene 64.4 to 35.6 percent in 2024.
Harris supports investing in improved access to healthcare, including mental health and substance abuse services; restoring protections and restrictions under Roe v. Wade; negotiating prices with pharmaceutical companies for Medicare, Medicaid and exchange health plans; and legislation that would prevent price gouging.
He wants to improve roads and water systems in rural areas; expand broadband access; and invest in law enforcement and public safety. He supports immigration reform, expansion of asylum processing and improving standards for vetting of those entering the country.
Among the Republican candidates is Georgia State Sen. Colton Moore, who announced his candidacy on Dec. 9. In his announcement on social media, he wrote that he is “100% Pro-Trump, 100% Pro-Life, 100% Pro-Gun,” and supports the administration’s immigration and economic policies, citing “cheap gas and groceries.”
Moore has served as a state legislator for seven years.
Idaho
Former Idaho state Rep. Paulette Jordan, Coeur d’Alene, is a Democratic candidate for governor. If she wins her party’s primary on May 19, 2026 she would face Gov. Brad Little, a Republican who is seeking a third term, in the general election.
Idaho, population 1.8 million, had a Native population of 29,347 in the 2020 Census.
Jordan served on the Coeur d’Alene Tribal Council and, from 2014-2018, in the Idaho House of Representatives. She was the Democratic nominee for governor in 2018 and for U.S. Senate in 2020.
Jordan supports investing in education to help train people for jobs that provide livable wages; expanding Medicaid to help thousands of Idahoans get the primary care and coverage; protecting all people from discrimination; further developing wind, solar and other renewable energy sources; protecting natural resources; and keeping public lands public.
Little’s campaign website states he has cut or simplified regulations, easing burdens on small businesses and residents; achieved a budget surplus and provided tax relief to Idahoans; invested in veterans homes and scholarships for members of the state’s National Guard; invested in education, literacy and workforce training; and invested in agriculture, broadband, transportation and water without raising taxes.
Illinois
Anthony Tamez-Pochel, Sicangu Lakota and Black, is a Democratic candidate for Congress from Illinois’ 5th District. He is one of four candidates challenging incumbent Rep. Mike Quigley for the Democratic nomination. Quigley is seeking a ninth term and served on House committees on appropriations and intelligence.
The Illinois primary is scheduled for March 17. Illinois, population 12.8 million, had a Native population of 280,000 in the 2020 Census.
Tamez-Pochel was elected in 2023 to represent District 17 on the Chicago Police District Council and is believed to be the only Native American currently in elective office in Illinois.
As a police district council member, Tamez-Pochel has worked to promote accountability and incorporate the community’s voice into matters of public safety. He is active with Chi-Nations, a grassroots collective creating safe spaces for Native youth through art, activism and education.
If elected, he told ICT in an earlier interview, he would work to protect individual data privacy, expand access to health care, roll back the Trump administration’s anti-immigration policies, protect Native sovereignty and honor treaty rights.
Republican candidates include business owner Tom Hanson; Dr. Kimball Ladien, MD; and Barry Wicker, a licensed engineer.
Kansas
Democrat Sharice Davids, Ho-Chunk, is a lawyer and a four-term member of Congress from Kansas’ 3rd District. She’s no stranger to toughing it out — she’s a former amateur and professional MMA fighter, one of the first two Native American women elected to Congress, and the first openly LGBTQ congresswoman from Kansas.
Davids survived an earlier attempt by the Kansas legislature to weaken her re-election chances through redistricting. She may run for the U.S. Senate if the legislature follows through with a mid-decade redistricting plan, but she has until June 1, 2026, to file her candidacy. The primary is scheduled for Aug. 4, 2026.
Kansas, population 2.9 million, had a Native population of 34,407 in the 2020 Census.
A Senate candidacy would be a challenge. Kansans have not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1932, and incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall has Trump’s endorsement for reelection.
Maine
Maine State Auditor Matthew Dunlap, a Democrat, and former Gov. Paul LePage, a Republican, are candidates for Congress from Maine’s 2nd District. An early poll showed LePage leading 47 to 37 percent, but the error rate was +/- 4.9 percent – and 16 percent of voters were undecided.
The Maine primary is scheduled for June 9. The incumbent, Jared Golden, a Democrat, is not seeking reelection.
Maine, population 1.3 million, had a Native population of 8,328 in the 2020 Census.
Dunlap previously served as Maine’s secretary of state and as a state representative.
“Long before I was in public service, I worked every job I could get — bartender, cook, dishwasher, even a fur trapper,” Dunlap wrote on his X account, formerly known as Twitter. “I’m running for Congress to fight for working-class Mainers every day … Every week, I hear about families struggling with healthcare, rent, and childcare. I’m running for Congress to fight for a people’s agenda: lower healthcare costs, an expanded Child Tax Credit, good-paying jobs, affordable housing and childcare.”
LePage said he supports lowering costs and inflation; supports Trump’s immigration policies; will work to lower taxes and cut red tape; will protect Second Amendment rights; and protect Social Security and Medicare.
LePage’s tenure as governor from 2011-2019 was marked by conflicts with tribal nations over casino development, land claims, resource management and water rights.
Michigan
Diop Harris, Nottawaseppi Huron Band of the Potawatomi, is one of four Democrats seeking nomination for the U.S. House of Representatives from Michigan’s 4th District. The primary is scheduled for Aug. 4, 2026.
If Harris wins the primary, he will face incumbent Rep. Bill Huizenga, Republican, who is seeking a second term. Michigan, population 10 million, had a Native population of 64,312 in the 2020 Census.
Harris has said he was inspired to go into public service by the legacy of civil rights icon John Lewis. After earning a degree in public policy from Michigan State University, Harris served as a field organizer, campaign staffer, and later as a legislative correspondent for Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, connecting constituents to federal services. He is active with the Battle Creek NAACP, where he advocates for justice, equity and opportunity for working families across Michigan.
His cites as a top priority to “revolutionize our economy to be cleaner and more sustainable – not just rethinking our energy system, but how we produce and consume things.” He also support making investments to “bring entire industries into their next generation,” a reform curriculum “to ensure students can learn from our past and the present, and have the skills to fully participate in society,” lowering the cost of post-secondary education and providing relief from student debt, and improving veterans’ access to healthcare. including mental health, and good-paying jobs.
Huizenga, a former state legislator, serves on the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs and Committee on Financial Services. He supports a Balanced Budget Amendment; opposes abortion; introduced bipartisan legislation to improve mental health resources for veterans; supports increasing American energy supplies; and supports efforts to secure the border.
Minnesota
Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, White Earth Nation, is a candidate for U.S. Senate. If elected, she would be the first Native American woman to serve in the Senate. The Minnesota primary is scheduled for Aug. 11, 2026.
Minnesota, 5.7 million population, had a Native population of 71,559 in the 2020 Census.
Flanagan, a Democrat, was elected to the Minneapolis school board at age 25 — the youngest and the first Native American elected to the school board — and later served as executive director of the Minnesota Children’s Defense Fund. She was elected to the state House of Representatives in 2015 and as lieutenant governor in 2019. She co-chaired the 2024 Democratic National Convention.
During her public service career, Flanagan has championed paid family and medical leave, free school meals, investments in housing, missing and murdered Indigenous people prevention, land back efforts, and Native language revitalization.
Other declared candidates are U.S. Rep. Angie Craig, D-Minn., who has represented Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District since 2019; Royce White, former NBA player and Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2024; and Adam Schwarze, Republican, a former Navy SEAL.
New Mexico
Former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland, Laguna Pueblo, is a Democratic candidate for governor. If elected she would succeed Michelle Lujan Grishan, who is retiring because of term limits.
The New Mexico primary is scheduled for June 2, 2026. New Mexico, population 2.1 million, had a Native population of 214,334 in the 2020 Census.
Haaland served as chair of the New Mexico Democratic Party from 2015-2017, as a member of the U.S. House from 2019-2021, and as Interior secretary from 2021-2025. She said on her campaign website that her priorities are jobs, health, housing, education and safety.
“Deb knows that jobs, health, housing, education, and safety will help New Mexico families prosper,” her website states. “But she also knows that New Mexicans must be the ones to build our own future. Crime, poverty, homelessness, addiction, wildfires, drought, and more will keep pulling us down if we keep doing the same things and expecting a different result.”
Other candidates for the Democratic nomination: Sam Bregman, Bernalillo County district attorney in New Mexico; and former Las Cruces mayor Ken Miyagishima.
Candidates for the Republican nomination include Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull and Duke Rodriguez, CEO of a company that produces medical-grade cannabis and cannabis-based medicines.
Ohio
Former U.S. Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, is seeking election to the Senate seat vacated by JD Vance when he became vice president. The Ohio primary is scheduled for May 5, 2026.
If Brown wins the primary, he would face Jon Husted, who was appointed to the position in January. Husted is a former Ohio state legislator and lieutenant governor.
Ohio, population 11.8 million, had a Native population of 35,754 in the 2020 Census.
Brown served in the U.S. House from 1993-2007 and in the Senate from 2007-2025. He chaired the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs; and served on the Agriculture, Ethics, Finance, and Veterans’ Affairs committees.
Brown lists among his accomplishments his work to protect pensions and full Social Security payments; cap the cost of insulin and reduce the price of other prescription drugs; and get veterans care for illnesses caused by exposure to toxins.
Brown “believes too many people think of politics as left or right, but to him it’s all about whose side you’re on, and who you are fighting for,” his campaign website states. “With all the craziness coming out of Washington, including giving massive tax breaks to corporations and billionaires at the expense of hardworking Ohioans, Sherrod knows he has the ability to do something about it, and that’s why he’s running for Senate.”
Husted’s campaign points to his accomplishments as a legislator in “creating a strong economy, a thriving community, and a pro-business environment Ohioans can rely on.” He helped attract Intel’s chip manufacturing facility to Licking County; implemented Online Driver’s License Renewal, Online Title Transfer, and other digital services; led the passage of the most fiscally conservative budget in 40 years; and delivered an income tax cut, reportedly one of the largest ever in Ohio.
Oklahoma
State Rep. Cyndi Munson is, as of this writing, the lone Democratic candidate for governor. She hopes to succeed Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt, Cherokee, who is term-limited. The primary is scheduled for June 16, 2026.
Six candidates are seeking the Republican nomination, among them Oklahoma Attorney General Gentner Drummond and former Oklahoma House Speaker Charles McCall.
Oklahoma, population 3.9 million, had a Native population of 341,399 in the 2020 Census.
Munson, the first Asian-American elected to Oklahoma’s legislature, was a nonprofit executive before being elected to the Oklahoma House of Representatives in 2015. She served on the Oversight Committee for the Legislative Office for Fiscal Transparency and in 2022 became House minority leader.
Munson’s priorities: Investments in public schools and teacher pay, tax relief for Oklahomans, lower health care costs, and repeal of Oklahoma’s abortion ban. “As your next Governor, I’ll work every day to make Oklahoma a place where every family can afford groceries, healthcare, and rent,” she wrote on X.
Washington
U.S. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, a Democrat, is expected to seek a third term representing the state’s 3rd Congressional District. She would likely again be challenged by Joe Kent, a retired U.S. Army warrant officer who has served as the director of the National Counterterrorism Center since July 31, 2025.
The Washington primary is scheduled for Aug. 5, 2026. Washington, population 7.7 million, had a Native population of 186,401 in the 2020 Census.
Perez — described by Politico as a “Blue-Collar, Bible-Quoting, Israel-Supporting, Pro-Choice, Millennial Latina” — defeated Kent 51.7 to 47.9 percent in 2024 and 50.41 to 49.59 percent in 2022. She went on to serve on the House Appropriations, Agriculture and Small Business committees and co-sponsored 43 bipartisan bills that passed the House.
Kent is a longtime supporter of Trump’s agenda. In past campaigns, he called the economy “the biggest issue as it pretty much affects everybody” and said he would “oppose the endless deficits and big government spending that’s driving this record inflation.” On immigration, Kent said securing the border should be a priority over “providing foreign aid to other nations and fighting in foreign wars.” He supports expanding access to school choice “so that federal dollars follow the students and not the education bureaucracy.”
Looking ahead
Meanwhile, Conrad, the Democratic leader in Washington state, is looking ahead to the expectations that will be on Democrats should they regain the majority in 2026.
“I really liked what Gov. Tim Walz from Minnesota said a couple months ago: When we get back in power, people are going to want us to swing for the fences and not just talk about how hard it is to get things done. No, they’re going to want us to deliver,” Conrad said. “They’re going to want us to deliver on affordable housing, on access to affordable health care. They’re going to want to see us actually getting things done. And I think that Democrats are realizing that we’ve got to be ready to do that and move at the pace that people want to see.”
Stopp wants Americans to know that Congress is populated with people who do good and often bipartisan work — work that may not always be reflected in the messaging by congressional leadership.
“I’m a former chief of staff to a member of Congress,” Stopp said. “What surprised me when I got there was that the majority of members are elected because they love this country and they want to see good things. We may disagree on how we get there, but most of them want the best for this country. And so, there is always the possibility of bipartisanship. The challenge comes from leadership and national messaging, and that’s both parties, and then it’s getting it across the football field.”
He added, “The sky’s not falling folks. Just keep getting out there doing good things. Partisanship in this country is going to tear us apart long before anything that comes out of Washington. Just don’t forget who your neighbors are.”
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MIDTERMS AT A GLANCE
Earliest candidate filings: Each state sets its own dates for candidate filing deadlines and primary elections. Candidacies were filed in October in Illinois, the first in the U.S. The first primaries are scheduled for March 3, 2026 in Arkansas, North Carolina and Texas.
Latest candidate filings: Aug. 25, 2026 in Massachusetts. The latest primaries will take place on Sept. 15 in Delaware and Massachusetts.
General election: Nov. 3, 2026.
Terms begin: Jan. 3, 2027. Members of the House are elected to two-year terms. Senators are elected to six-year terms. Representatives and senators are paid $174,000 a year.
House authority: The House and Senate introduce and vote on legislation, but they also have distinct authorities established in the Constitution. The House has the constitutional authority to begin the process of creating and passing bills that raise revenue, or taxes. Upon approval by the Senate, the bill goes to the president for signature. The House also has the constitutional authority to impeach federal officials. An impeachment is the political equivalent of an indictment; impeachments are tried in the U.S. Senate. The House also has the constitutional authority to elect the president should the Electoral College be deadlocked.
Senate authority: The Senate has the constitutional authority to try impeachments, approve presidential appointments, approve or reject treaties, and elect the Vice President in the event of an Electoral College tie; the Vice President serves as president of the Senate and votes in the event of a tie.