What impact will the 2010 U.S. Census have on your tribe over the next decade? The 2010 Decennial Census could have significant consequences for a number of small poor rural tribes. Why? The 2009 Recovery Act pumped an additional $3 billion into Indian country this year, an increase of more than 40 percent of normal year Indian country appropriations. A large Recovery Act grant awarded to a small tribe can make the tribal economy look unusually vibrant for a short period of time.
The data collected this year by the Census will provide a snapshot that may not be at all representative of a tribe’s economic conditions over the past decade or the upcoming decade. While national unemployment rates reached a 26 year high in October, 10.2 percent, the unemployment rate for some small tribes is at an all-time low due to the influx of stimulus funds. A single grant or two, say for housing renovation or construction, can paint a much-improved picture of the tribal economy.
Grant writers depend on the decennial census data for the key rating and ranking factors for many of the assistance programs offered by federal agencies. Funding agencies like to compare tribal data to county, state and national census data as a measure of comparative wealth or poverty.
The distribution of Recovery Act funds has not been uniformly applied in Indian country. Some tribes have benefitted heftily while others have been totally missed. Those that received a large grant or two may look a lot better off this year than over the next several years. A tribe that has a normal unemployment rate of 40 to 50 percent may temporarily experience rates less than 10 percent while a large project is underway. Once that project is completed, unemployment will return but the decennial census data will still be at the 2010 snapshot level.
The near trillion dollars of Recovery Act funds has not been as sporadic or volatile to states or counties as to recipient tribes. Tribes that have a chance to receive stimulus funds are not expected to refuse this assistance but should consider the potential long-term impacts. A 2010 census snapshot might not be representative of your tribe’s economic picture.
– Bob McNichols
President of RezBuilders
Kingman, Ariz.