This column was originally published on Mark Trahant’s Substack page.
Mark Trahant
Let’s start with a couple of my news rimes.
Health insurance costs are on the rise
White House and Congress ignore our cries
ACA subsidies are too a bill
Yet Trump demands $230 million from the till
And,
How direct is the shutdown mayhem?
Turns out question is a partisan gem
Seven out of 10 Democrats know who’s been hit
while 26 percent of Republicans don’t care a bit.
That polling number surprised me. How can government be so divided by partisanship? Then again everything is right now. Here is the actual data.
The headline from a national survey conducted for the Partnership for Public Service found that most people see the government shutdown as having a widespread impact on the country.
Then the survey found that perceptions about the impacts from the shutdown differ by political party, a finding that aligns with previous Partnership research. “Fully 69% of self-identified Democrats are seeing an impact, compared with 27% of Republicans and 38% of independents,” the survey reported. “When asked to describe specific consequences they are seeing, many respondents cited travel and airline delays. Others mentioned how they, or someone close to them, are unable to work or receive paychecks. A few referred to limited services available at national parks and potential outcomes for health insurance.”
That divide explains Congress too. The majority of Republican members see the shutdown as an inconvenience. Democrats hate the idea of government grinding to a halt, but many of those polled are also deeply concerned about how to limit the rising costs of health insurance.
This is where the polling gets fun. Kaiser Family Foundation has been asking about health care too.
“As Congress debates federal health care spending as part of spending bill negotiations, including extending the enhanced premium tax credits, the latest KFF Health Tracking Poll finds three-quarters (78%) of adults say Congress should extend the enhanced tax credits for people who buy their own insurance through the ACA Marketplace. This is more than three times the share of the public (22%) who say Congress should let the credits expire. Notably, majorities across political party want Congress to extend the tax credits including nine in ten (92%) Democrats, eight in ten (82%) independents, and six in ten (59%) Republicans. A majority of Republicans who align with the MAGA movement (57%) also say Congress should extend these subsidies.”
That’s interesting. Even MAGA Republicans want Congress to extend the subsidies.
But is the leadership of Congress on board with that? Again: It’s interesting. Leadership, and especially the think tanks, are sticking with the line that these were COVID-era subsidies that should go away because they benefit wealthy taxpayers. The problem is that more and more members are hearing from their constituents who are blown away by insurance rates going up two or three-fold. It’s hard to ignore that.
ICT has a look at how tribes and Indigenous people are being impacted now. “No where in our treaties does it state that communications and resources stop when the government shuts down,” said Peter Lengkeek, chairman of the Crow Creek Sioux Tribe in central South Dakota. “I have yet to find that clause.”
Hidden clause or not … It’s a good time to explore: What will end the government shutdown?
I see three possible routes.
First, one party caves. (On the Democrat side that would only take a few senators. On the Republican side, that would be one person, the Caver-in-Chief (or was that a TACO?) Donald Trump.
The second path forward is for the Republicans to change the rules and enact the budget as they see fit. (That will be a fun campaign challenge.)
The third way is what should be: A deal that involves Democrats and Republicans based on negotiations. So political, right? Old school, the art of the possible.
In 2019 Trump presided over the longest shutdown in U.S. history. He demanded funding for a border wall.
He was ready to make his case during the State of the Union, but the Speaker Nancy Pelosi let him know that she controlled the Capitol, not the president. Trump caved and gave up on the speech.
Not long after that he walked away from his demands on the border. So much so that conservative Ann Coulter wrote: “Good news for George Herbert Walker Bush: As of today, he is no longer the biggest wimp ever to serve as President of the United States.”
One complication for the Republicans wanting to stay firm is the clock. Speaker Mike Johnson has kept the House out of session so that lawmakers can’t negotiate. As he has said over and over there is nothing to talk about because the House already did its job.
Only the House spending bill expires on November 21 – and that date is getting close.
Once the House is back in session there will be 100 Senators and 435 House members who will all have their own plans to resolve the impasse.
Back to history: The last shutdown ended with Air Traffic Controllers stopped showing up to work by calling in sick. (They were, and are, essential workers who are not being paid until Congress acts.)
In 2019 the controller’s union said: “We have a growing concern for the safety and security of our members, our airlines, and the traveling public due to the government shutdown. This is already the longest government shutdown in the history of the United States and there is no end in sight. In our risk averse industry, we cannot even calculate the level of risk currently at play, nor predict the point at which the entire system will break. It is unprecedented.”
That risk adverse industry is still flying for now. The rest of the government? It’s circling, waiting for someone to take control of the tower.